Nate Silver, Andrew Gelman and Aaron Edlin Have written an article about  the probability of your vote making a difference in the electoral outcome based on the state in which you cast your ballot.

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We compute these probabilities for each state in the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote is most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote has an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America has a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election.

ARTICLE

As I posted in an earlier diary with the debate now supposedly back on the McCain camp would spin it to lay claim to making the bail out deal happen.

Well  seems I was right.

Well it appears old John maybe showing up at Ole Miss after all.

This from the LA Times

Full name and email address of writer withheld at writers request. However original can be seen in the comments section of this article:
http://www.washingtonindependent.com/367 1/the-reform-candidate

Dear friends,

So many people have asked me about what I know about Sarah Palin in the
last 2 days that I decided to write something up . . .

Basically, Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton have only 2 things in
common: their gender and their good looks. :)

You have my permission to forward this to your friends/email contacts
with my name and email address attached, but please do not post it on
any websites, as there are too many kooks out there . . .

Thanks,
Anne

ABOUT SARAH PALIN

I am a resident of Wasilla, Alaska. I have known Sarah since 1992.
Everyone here knows Sarah, so it is nothing special to say we are on a
first-name basis. Our children have attended the same schools. Her
father was my child's favorite substitute teacher. I also am on a
first name basis with her parents and mother-in-law. I attended more
City Council meetings during her administration than about 99% of the
residents of the city.

She is enormously popular; in every way she's like the most popular
girl in middle school. Even men who think she is a poor choice and
won't vote for her can't quit smiling when talking about her because
she is a "babe".

It is astonishing and almost scary how well she can keep a secret. She
kept her most recent pregnancy a secret from her children and parents
for seven months.

She is "pro-life". She recently gave birth to a Down's syndrome baby.
There is no cover-up involved, here; Trig is her baby.

She is energetic and hardworking. She regularly worked out at the gym.

She is savvy. She doesn't take positions; she just "puts things out
there" and if they prove to be popular, then she takes credit.

Her husband works a union job on the North Slope for BP and is a
champion snowmobile racer. Todd Palin's kind of job is highly
sought-after because of the schedule and high pay. He arranges his
work schedule so he can fish for salmon in Bristol Bay for a month or
so in summer, but by no stretch of the imagination is fishing their
major source of income. Nor has her life-style ever been anything
like that of native Alaskans.

Sarah and her whole family are avid hunters.

Ok the VP announcement is out and the predictable has happened. A certain segment is outraged, once again their candidate has supposedly been dissed, snubbed, the democratic process yet once again has been destoyed. In other words the world may well be coming to an end. YIKES!

So here's the deal you've got 24 hrs to get it out of your systems.

If you haven't written a Anti-VP diary yet here are  some guidelines to make it easier.

McCain at a town hall meeting in NM said today that he agrees with bringing back the draft.

From Think Progress

A Questioner said:

If we don't reenact the draft, I don't think we'll have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.

To which McCain responded:

Ma'am, let me say that I don't disagree with anything you said.

There has been a lot of hand wringing, and a few I told you so's about Obama's latest poll numbers and the apparent tightening of the race. Everybody is wondering why, in what would appear to be a very favorable year for the Democrats is it tight at all. Bush's favorably ratings are at around 30%, an unpopular war, high oil  prices and a rotten economy. I mean this should be a cake walk, right?

Well maybe not. Let's face it, the Republican's may have lucked into the  the best candidate to go up against us. McCain's got a 20 year brand as a "maverick" some one who goes against the grain of the the standard Republican. I'm not speaking to the truth of this brand, but the perception and there is a big difference between reality and perception. Perception tends to win in the short term until folks start paying attention. And right now I don't think the majority of the electorate is paying attention.

Next are we really expecting to much. Gallup has an interesting read on this:

OK as we all breathlessly watch the polls for minute swings. Randomly give advice to the Obama campaign about what it should not or should be doing. Because each of us knows for a fact we are all better political strategists, spokes people, operatives than any body the Obama campaign has hired. While we continue to argue the primary wars (Thanks Atlantic ) Let us remember it's August.

As we all fritter away our time here on the blogs either agreeing, flaming or ignoring each other. Let us remember it's August.

Maybe we should all, like Obama, take a little time for ourselves.  A little time away from worry and care. A little time away from prognostication on who the VP pick will or won't be. A little less freaking out about the latet dumb ad out of either camp. A little less care as to why Bill is speaking when he is and/or why Hillary is speaking when she is.

Get outside. Go smell the flowers, they'll be gone soon enough.

And on this note  leave you with this: